When Abdul Jalil, the Secretary General of Awami League, declared that the last day of the government was 30th April, people did not pay much attention to it. Our politicians have a tradition of speaking nonsense. However, when he was found repeating his prophecy and the Opposition Leader was seen endorsing it, it was not limited a mere political nuisance. Unfortunately the political history of our country is full of unexpected events and conspiracies and some people fear that the 30 April ultimatum may have links with such undesirable things.

Although democracy has its own method of changing a government, oust government (even if it is a democratically elected one) movement is not rare in the country. However, giving a deadline for it and so confidently sticking on it is new.

The question that is hovering in the minds of the countrymen is how Awami League will achieve its target of ousting the government within only one month? I tried to analyse some solution scenarios in the following paragraphs.

The most democratic mean of ousting the government will be through an impeachment move in the parliament against the ruling coalition. However, it does not seem that Awami League have any such plan. The ruling coalition has an overwhelming majority in the parliament and such a move will yield no result.

The opposition will probably call for lengthy hartals and arrange more violent agitation. However, it is very unlikely that the government will resign or will be overthrown by few days of hartals or few militant rallies. The Awami League observed such programmes during 1992-96 with much stronger power as the now ruling partner Jamaat was with them at that time but failed to make the government resign before completing its term. This time the ruling party seems to be more matured in tackling violent agitations. Thus this method is unlikely to give the desired result for the opposition.

Awami League may try to organise a military coup that will over through the government. It is not that unlikely. It has past records of instigating, organising and supporting military coups. When Ershad overthrew an elected government of BNP, Sheikh Hasina supported it by openly saying, "I am not unhappy". Former President Abdur Rahman Biswas foiled an attempted military coup supported by Awami League immediately before 1996 election. There are strong indications that the possibility of a military coup cannot be ruled out. The two most influential powers, USA and India, are unhappy with the ruling coalition as it refused to sell gas to India. Mysteriously Bangladesh has recently irked its long-term defence friend China. Dr. Kamal Hossain and similar quarter of our politicians who are generally known to have strong western links have suddenly joined Awami League in the oust government movement. B. Choudhury kicked-off his political campaign from a gathering of foreign diplomats. I think BNP leaders and activists are feeling lucky as B. Choudhury has been safely removed from the presidency well ahead the possibility of this coup. Probably realising the possibility of a military coup, the Prime Minister has taken extensive programme of meeting the army. She is seen every now and then with them.

The government can be ousted by assassinating Prime Minister Begum Khaleda Zia and her son Tareq Rahman. It is not new in our politics. Mujib was ousted in this way. Assassination of Ziaur Rahman has some similarities with this method. Many people believe that the killing of Ziaur Rahman was a step of Ershad's plot of capturing power. The opposition may try it, but it is not that unlikely to succeed. Killing Khaleda Zia or Tareq Rahman alone will not oust the government. Killing both of them, however, may pave a way for Awami League to go to power because it will weaken and probably disintegrate BNP.

The opposition may try to persuade India to invade the country and do what the USA has done to Iraq. It is not that unlikely. Indian Ambassador to Bangladesh Ms. Bina Sikry has started speaking in a tone that is not suitable for a diplomat. There are newspaper reports that she claimed that transit through Bangladesh was India's right. The opposition and the media have long started a campaign to establish Bangladesh as an extreme fanatic country. India expressed its eagerness to conduct operation inside Bangladesh against so-called rebels.

Some people are reluctant to take this ultimatum that seriously. According to them it is a political game of Abdul Jalil for generating momentum to anti-government agitation. He was not found very successful in organising the party and bringing out the leaders and activists from the deep frustration that they were in as a result of 2001 election disaster. He gave the ultimatum, acted as a fortuneteller and the media helped to establish its seriousness.

It may be true, as it has yielded some success in generating some hope of toppling the government among AL activists and attracting the political 'extras' to join hands with Awami League in the oust-government movement. Mysteriously the 'Third Force' initiative of former president B. Choudhury coincided with declaring the deadline. It might be recalled that the former president maintained long silence after he had to resign from presidency and he son used to enjoy his connections with the government. There was no sign of their discontent. Suddenly Mahi created a situation that he was sure would not be tolerated and the game started.

I have a highly optimistic colleague who thinks that nothing will happen. After a relatively warmer month of April, on the first day of May, Abdul Jalil will respond the questions of journalists by saying, "Did I say April 2004?".

The countrymen are really in a conundrum about what is going to happen in 30 April. The worst case will lead the country to accept civil war and foreign invasion and the best will be frequent and lengthy harlals and violent street agitations. We have no way out of it. We have hyperactive intellectuals. They do not seem to have any worry about it. In fact, we have been seeing our respected teachers and writers more interested in shutting down the country than keep it running.

Probably it is the God who only can save us. However, will the God do so us if we all decide to destroy ourselves?