Twenty people including a central leader of the opposition Awami League were killed and more than two hundreds were injured in a grenade attack on a rally of the party on 21st August 2004. Sheikh Hasina, the Opposition Leader, who addressed the rally, escaped the attack. The whole nation was overwhelmed with shock and fear when it came to know it.

The attack has been seen as a part of a series of bomb and grenade attacks in public gatherings. The recent wave of attacks started a month ago in Sylhet when few people were killed when bombs were thrown outside two cinema halls there. It was followed by a bomb blast in a rally of Sylhet Awami League where the Mayor of Sylhet and local Awami League leader narrowly escaped the attack.

One after another incidents of bomb and grenade attacks are occurring in the country killing innocent people and destabilising the political and economic situation. However, there has been no progress in finding out the culprits behind these heinous attacks.

Many people see the attack is as an assassination attempt of Sheikh Hasina. The opposition Awami League has blamed the ruling coalition for the attack. The logic of blaming the BNP is that since we have a two-party system and both parties are following some sort of political dynasty, if Hasina were killed in that attack, the BNP would be its direct beneficiary. However, there are several factors that weaken this hypothesis.

Firstly it is not very clear whether Sheikh Hasina was the target of the attack. She was addressing the rally from an open truck. Eye-witnesses told the TV channels that the grenades were thrown from the roof and varandas of adjacent buildings. I have heard commentary of arms experts that the attack was carried out by well trained people. If this is the case, it is really unusual that Sheikh Hasina escaped the attack absolutely unhurt. Moreover, no grenade was thrown on the truck she was on. It indicates that the attack was not to kill her but to terrorise.

Secondly, the ruling coalition was in a very strong political position before that attack. After the 30th April fiasco, the Awami League could not build up any movement. The government has been controlling the hartals with a very strong hand and kept the street agitation under its control. The flood came as a political blessing for BNP and Jamaat. The government successfully managed the flood and it received wide appreciation. The ministers, MPs and other leaders of BNP and Jamaat took the flood as a golden opportunity to reach the common people. Awami League was largely absent in the relief activities.

Thirdly, there is no reason to think that killing Hasina will destroy Awami League. Killing Mujib and most of his family members could not do it. Awami League is a party that grew up through violences. So, bloodshed only strengthened it. The party is more organised now than 1975.

Fourthly, it is not wise to think that the ruling coalition will create big issue for the opposition when there is only two years to election.

Some people point their fingers to Jamaat for the attack. It is not clear to me why Jamaat is suspected. It is known to be a very disciplined party. Everything it does is thought to be well planned. If they had done it, they must have performed a profit and loss analysis of the incident. Destroying Awami League, in fact, reduces the importance of Jamaat. If Awami League is weaken, BNP will be strengthened. If BNP is strong enough to come to power alone, it will certainly not bother keeping Jamaat with it. BNP is still tolerating Jamaat because it thinks that separating Jamaat will reduce its chance to come to power again. The government has been successful in tackling the street agitation and preventing situation like that of its previous term mainly because it has been successful in keeping Jamaat with it.

Secondly, because the print and electronic media is strongly against Jamaat, any such incidents widens the gap between Jamaat and the majority of the population. You will notice how Jamaat is trying to establish a good image during the three years. Its ministers have been visiting the Puja Mandaps, its web site has been publishing pictures of meetings between Nizami and the western ambassadors and it has been keeping a safe distance from the anti-Kadiani movements. It is very unlikely that it would carryout such an attack that would destroy the image that it has been trying hard to build.

Thirdly, Jamaat has been in our political arena for the last fifty years, but it has not been seen before to engage in an armed struggle. During Mujib's rule, almost all of the leftist groups took arms in their hands against the government. Jamaat kept complete silence. Although the media blamed it for several bomb blasts during the last Awami rule, no leader or activist of it was charge sheeted.

Some people even suspect Sheikh Hasina for the attack. Although it seems lunatic to blame someone for attacking her own rally, the background of this attack in interesting. The party experienced a humiliating political setback after the 30th April fiasco. The party supporters and activists fell in deep canyon of frustration about the future of the party. Due to hard stand about Hartals of the government, the party could not form any effective anti-government movement. In such a situation, came the flood that inundated one-third of the country. It was seen as a blessing for the ruling BNP and Jamaat. Awami League was really in a political bankrupt situation. This is why when its leader Sheikh Hasina told the newsmen on her return from Istanbul that Kala Jahangir, one of the most wanted top terror of the country phoned her hotel suit in Istanbul and informed her that there would be attempt to kill her, very few people took it seriously. People thought that it was an attempt to create an issue for political agitation.

There is an interesting thing about the bomb and grenade attacks. In almost all of the attacks, the prime targets escaped miraculously. In fact, they left only minutes before the blasts. Hasan Imam, a renowned cultural organiser and a stalwart Awami League sympathiser in the cultural arena was present in two public gatherings as chief guest where barbaric bomb attacks were carried out. In both cases, he left the dais few minutes before the blasts. Sheikh Haisna herself remained un-harm in a bomb blast in Chittagong in 1988 when at least 20 activists of her party were killed by gunmen. All those killed were standing around her.

Despite all of the facts, it is very difficult to suspect that Hasina would mastermind that attack that had a chance to kill herself.

Some newspaper indicated that the small Islamic groups like that of Bangla Bhai might have connection with the attack because the series of attack started by attacking on cinema halls. However, there is no obvious reason for the small Islamic groups to attack Sheikh Hasina. If any Islamic group were to carryout grenade attack, it might be as a revenge of American invasion in Iraq and other Muslim countries. Awami League is not that favoured by America. On the contrary, Hasina blamed Jamaat for favouring America and not protesting the American invasion in Iraq adequately. Another reason of attacks by small Islamic groups might be in revenge of atrocities against them. There has been no such thing in Bangladesh. Pro-Islamic BNP and Jamaat are in power. Why will the Islamic groups will carryout such attacks to put their sympathisers in problem? It seems to me that attacking cinema halls was an attempt to establish the identity of the attackers for the future attacks for hiding the real identity of the attackers.

The groups that are really under pressure and whose existence is seriously threaten in the last few months are the under world terrorists like Kala Jahangir, Pichchi Hannan etc and the leftist terrorists. After the Rapid Action Battalion (RAB) started its operation, there has been remarkable progress in hunting down such terrorists. It has shown good success in controlling the leftist extremists too. There are sufficient reasons to suspect these two groups for the attack. Sheikh Hasina told that Kala Jahangir phoned her hotel suit in Istanbul and informed her that there would be attempt to kill her. If she is true than Kala Jahangir had close connection with the attackers, probably he was involved in masterminding the attack. Involvement of the leftist terrorists and the criminal groups like that of Kala Jahangir and others should be investigated.

Some people think that the groups that are fighting for independence from India, might have connection with this attack. Since, Awami League is largely seen as a pro-Indian party, these groups might have seen it as a threat to their existence. However, it is India's internal affair. What really a political party in Bangladesh can do to oppress the independence seekers of the neighbouring giant? Moreover, if these groups think that the ruling coalition is less hostile to them than the Awami League, they would not create anarchy in the country which would jeopardise the rule of their 'friends' and make their remaining in power uncertain?

Some people suspect that Indian intelligence might have masterminded the attack. The attack went in their favour in all respects. India has business, political and military interest in weakening Bangladesh. It also wants to put Awami League in power. The attack was carried out in a special situation. Experts from India, Bangladesh and Nepal have been started campaigning jointly against India's plan to divert the common rivers. The recent flood, which inundated one third of the country, made it clear that the plan to divert the common rivers will make the beginning of the end of Bangladesh. It created a situation when Bangladesh might receive international support against the project. It is not unusual for India to try to create a fanatic image of the country and made the world think Bangladesh as another Afghanistan or Sudan. India has long been trying to portrait such an image and has already gained some success. It is true that the fundamentalists are the most anti-Indian quarter of the country. The attack has affected them most. They have been in a process of slowly being accepted by the elite of the country. The attack has destroyed it and has weaken them. It has increased the distance between the two major partners of the coalition. The attack certainly created an opportunity to throwing the country in chaotic situation. The aftermath of the attack is frustrating. If the government fails to control it with iron hand, the country will experience the same anarchy that occurred during the last BNP rule. Destroying the industries, business and education of Bangladesh always goes in favour of the neighbouring country.

Unfortunately, none of such incidents has been properly investigated. We still do not know who were behind other such previous attacks. The government must take all out measures to find the real culprits and punish them. The future of the country depends to a great extent upon finding the real masterminds. Inefficiency in this regard will mark the beginning of the end of Bangladesh.