The targets of almost all of the bomb and grenade attacks in the last five years are the seculars. As far as I remember, it started with Kazi Aref, a leftist political leader. Then a cultural function of Udichi, religious gathering of Christians, cultural function at Ramna, rally of CPB and a number of rally of rally of Awami League came under such attack. A bomb exploded in the residence of an Awami League lawmaker killing several people. Bombs also exploded in a number of cinema halls killing many people. The latest of this series of attacks was that of 21 August. The question that is burning in the minds of the countrymen is "Why the seculars are the targets?"

The first and most straightforward answer to the question is that the opponents of the seculars are carrying out the attacks to eradicate the secular forces from the country. Trying to eradicate a political party/ideology by killing its leaders and activists, bombing and creating disturbances in its public meetings is not unprecedented in the country. Khondoker Mostaq, the breakaway Awami League leader and one of the mastermind of the 1975 killing could not arrange a single public meeting without killing and disturbances. Wherever and whenever he organised a public gathering, bombs were blasted and snakes were let free in the meeting ground. It was one of the main reasons of his unsuccessful political career. The BNP tried to do the same to Ershad during its previous rule, however was not very successful. Golam Azam received almost the same treatment after his citizenship was restored. His case was slightly different as his meetings could not be foiled due to the highly organised nature of his party. However, a large number of political activists were killed in clashes surrounding his meetings.

Those who were involved in this way of eradication received varying degree of success. In case of Khondoker Moshtaq, his opponent, the Awami League, was fully successful in ending his political career by killing people in his meeting. Disturbances in Ershad's meeting in tern helped Ershad to bag some public syspathy. It is difficult to assess the effect of meeting disturbances on Golam Azam and Jamaat politics. Jamaat was shrunk from 18 seats to 3 and this type of disturbances might have some contribution to it.

The effect of bombing in secular rallies has been largely positive for Awami League and the leftist parties. It is a common trend in our politics that political parties cannot retain their popularity after spending sometime in the power. However, Awami League increased its share of vote after it ruled the country for five years. It received around 40%, which was much higher than its share of votes in 1996, of the total votes cast in the election of 2001. Attacks on its rallies and in cultural functions contributed to it.

One thing becomes clear from the above analysis that there are some other factors that contribute in determining how the party under attack is effected. In my opinion, these factors are a) media support that the party receives and b) organisational strength of the party.

Khondokar Moshtaq neither had media support nor had a well organised party. So, he was easily finished by attacking his meetings. Ershad had some media support and an organisation spread throughout the country. Jamaat did not have any media support but had a well organised party. So, it survived the attacks. However, those attacks widened the gap between the general mass and the party activists. Awami League, on the other hand, has been enjoying overwhelming media support. It also has a very well organised party of diehard activists. As a result, every bomb blast in Awami League rally only strengthened the party.

The leftists were effected in a slightly different way. They do not have strong organisations. However, they have a media support stronger than the Awami League. A 'public meeting' of twenty people gets so high publicity in the TC channels and newspapers that meetings of twenty thousand people of other parties do not get. All three private TV channels are eager to take the interviews of leftist leaders like Rashed Khan Menon, Hasanul Haque Inu etc. The leftists parties are largely paper and leader based. Most of them do not have any organisation in real sense. It does not seem to me that they are not interested in expanding their organisations. Rather the leaders use their face values to earn their livelihoods. This is why there are so many parties of like-minded leftists. Bomb blasts in meetings and cultural functions of the leftists helped the leaders getting more media coverage and increase their face values.

The above analysis indicates that the first answer to the question is not correct. The seculars are the prime targets of the bomb attacks not because the attackers want to finish them by killing their activists.

It leads to an alternative answer of the question - the attacks are targeted to increase the popularity of the seculars. It may seem that it has some ground as the above analysis indicates that the seculars had benefited most from attacks on them. No one will say that after bomb blast in Ramna, the Chhyanot has been weaken or Pahela Baishakh has become less popular. Instead, Chhayanot received donations of several crores of Taka and Pahela Baishakh has turned to a national festival. Many organisations like Proshika have stopped giving festival bonus in the Eids and have been paying them in Pahela Baishakh.

If the attacks are carried out only to make the seculars more popular, then why bombs are blasted in cinema halls or in shrines? You will get the answer if you carefully analyse the series of events before the 21st August grenade attack. The series started by a bomb blast in front of a cinema hall. If anyone believes that people can be refrained from viewing cinemas and dances by blasting few bombs in front of few cinema halls then he/she is living in fool's paradise. Porno CDs are available in every places of the country. Moreover, by the grace of Khaleda - Nizami government, channels like FTV and REN-TV are available in the cable networks. REN-TV airs porno films in every weekend. It seems to me that cinema halls are attacked as 'Establishment Attacks'. It is like establishment shots used in videography and cinematography. If the film director wants to show that two persons are talking in a high-rise apartment, he will first show the building, then the scene of the two persons. The shot that establishes the whereabouts is called the establishment shot. Cinema halls were attacked before attacking the main target is to establish the Islamists as the attackers.

However, it seems lunatic to me to deduce that such heinous bloodsheds are carried out only to increase the popularity of a quarter. It might be the bi-product. Then what is the main motive of the attacks?

Apart from the seculars, another quarter is highly benefited from the attacks. It is India. No one can deny the fact that the neighbouring country has potential business, political and military interest in labelling the country as a safe heaven for Islamic terrorists and creating unstable situation here. Probably it is the main reason of repeated attacks on the seculars. Someone may say that creation of an unstable situation can also be achieved by bombing BNP and Jamaat rallies. However, it has a risk of making them more popular which the attackers may not like.